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The Forecasting Risk Lurking Beneath the Base Business

As a CFO, you're tasked with doing what most SaaS leaders are struggling to achieve in 2025: Deliver growth. Improve efficiency. Preserve margin.

Your forecast assumes base revenue will hold, or expand. But in too many cases, it doesn’t. And the reasons why are often misdiagnosed.

Most finance leaders monitor NRR, churn, expansion rates, and GRR. But those are trailing indicators. What’s often missing is a forward-looking view of how the customer base is behaving today, and what that behavior tells you about tomorrow’s revenue.

Our recent joint research with QuadSci analyzed over 9,100 SaaS accounts and 160 billion telemetry data points. It surfaced a signal that explains the growing volatility in base revenue:

Customer usage behavior—not CSAT, not pricing—is the single strongest predictor of NRR outcomes.

And more importantly, it’s measurable.

October 30, 2025 6 min read
The Forecasting Risk Lurking Beneath the Base Business

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