Tariff Turbulence and Economic Uncertainty - How GTM Leaders Can Win

As companies prepare for the second half of 2025, growth-minded leaders are facing a commercial landscape dominated by rising uncertainty and unpredictable policy shifts.

During a recent webinar hosted for Pavilion members, Mike Hoffman, CEO at SBI and Tony Erickson, Managing Partner at SBI, delivered pragmatic guidance to help go-to-market (GTM) leaders navigate their new realities, particularly those stemming from trade policy volatility and a shifting tariff landscape.

Tariffs, Trade, and the Trickle-Down Impact

While headlines have focused on new tariffs, trade negotiations, and rapidly changing policy, the real challenge for many commercial leaders lies in the uncertainty these announcements introduce. Sudden policy changes with unclear intentions and rapid reversals are making it nearly impossible for GTM organizations to plan, forecast, and execute.

Among the insights shared:

• Tariffs are increasing, but their direction and durability remain unclear. Leaders should assume volatility, not resolution, is the short-term norm.
• American-made doesn’t mean tariff-proof. Raw materials and subcomponents still rely heavily on international supply chains.
• Software and services aren’t immune. Executives are increasingly asking how international labor, data handling, and cross-border software delivery may be affected.

Tariffs are more than just a manufacturing or logistics issue, they’re a go-to-market issue. And the cost of doing nothing is growing. (Where do you invest when business slows down?)

Inaction Is a Losing Strategy

Too many companies responded to the last major period of economic volatility, during the post-COVID recovery and the 2022 interest rate hikes, by “waiting it out.” That approach didn’t work then, and it’s failing again now.

Back in 2022, soaring inflation and aggressive rate hikes triggered a sharp downturn in buyer confidence. Pipeline velocity slowed, purchasing decisions were delayed, and growth stalled across sectors. Commercial teams froze in place, hoping stability would return before taking action. It didn’t. And by the time teams regained their footing, demand had shifted, and competitors had taken the lead.

Today, the level of uncertainty is reaching a similar peak, if not surpassing it. This time, it’s being driven not just by economic factors, but by geopolitical tension, tariff policy unpredictability, and fragile global supply chains. The signals are different, but the stakes are the same.

Commercial leaders must pivot from a reactive stance to a focused strategy of active optimization. That means:

• Double down on the things you can control. Align commercial execution to the segments, geographies, and use cases least exposed to external disruption.
• Reallocate resources by redirecting marketing and sales investments to verticals with higher certainty and resilience. Shift focus to domestic markets with less exposure to policy risk.
• Reevaluate your ICPs. What once was stable may now be volatile. Segment with precision and pursue high-propensity accounts aggressively.

Forecasting in a Fog 

One of the most nuanced takeaways from the webinar was this: it’s not enough to monitor macroeconomic indicators. GTM leaders must anticipate how uncertainty will ripple through buying behaviors, especially in complex B2B sales environments.

Questions forward-leaning teams are asking now:

• How are buyer priorities shifting due to macro risk?
• Are high-potential customers delaying or accelerating decisions?
• What friction points, both internal and external, are emerging across the buying journey?

SBI’s report, The Next Era of Commercial Differentiation, reveals that buyer friction, not internal sales deficiencies, is the dominant drag on revenue. When uncertainty rises, buying stalls. Leading teams address this not with more product pitches, but with customer-centric clarity and differentiated commercial execution.

Sales Velocity at an All-Time Low 

As Tony Erickson emphasized during the discussion, sales velocity is at its lowest point across the last four quarters, a signal that buying momentum is faltering. However, not all sellers are impacted equally. SBI research shows that among the four seller profiles, Anticipators and Translators are the only groups consistently moving deals forward in this environment. These sellers succeed by reducing complexity for the buyer, aligning with decision criteria early, and proactively guiding the purchase journey. Do you know your team's approach?

For GTM leaders, this is a moment to diversify by operating industry, identify where sales motion and buyer confidence remain strong, and reallocate resources accordingly.

Moving Forward with Strategic Resolve 

Perhaps the most impactful message from Mike Hoffman and Tony Erickson was this: uncertainty is the new normal. Growth leaders must become comfortable operating within it because only those who act decisively will be positioned to win.

As 2025 unfolds, SBI recommends:

• Treating uncertainty as a GTM design constraint, not an excuse for delay.
• Rigorously stress-testing your growth bets and execution plans against macroeconomic scenarios.
• Building agile commercial capabilities so that strategy can flex without compromising execution.

Redefine the Scene Where You Can Win 

As Mike Hoffman emphasized, “The worst thing you can do is nothing.” Winning in this environment means identifying new growth opportunities, reallocating with precision, and aligning execution to evolving buyer realities.

Leaders who are able to seize this moment will define the next era of growth.